The global waste crisis is accelerating. New World Bank data leaves no illusions

The amount of waste generated worldwide is growing much faster than expected. The latest World Bank report highlights the scale of the problem and warns that without rapid investment in infrastructure and systemic change, we face not only an environmental crisis, but also an economic one.

Forecasts from a few years ago are no longer valid - there is more waste than predicted

The world is drowning in rubbish - this is the worrying conclusion that emerges from the World Bank's latest report, 'The world is drowning in rubbish'. What a Waste 3.0: Global Snapshot of Solid Waste Management toward Circularity until 2050. As its authors point out, projections produced in 2018 indicated that we would globally generate around 2.59 billion tonnes of municipal waste in 2030. Meanwhile, we reached this level... just four years later. Already in 2022, 2.56 billion tonnes of municipal waste were generated globally, forcing experts to revise their assumptions.

Current projections for the scenario business as usual indicate that 2.95 billion tonnes of waste will be generated worldwide in 2030, rising to 3.85 billion tonnes in 2050. This represents an increase of around 50 per cent in less than three decades. It should be stressed that these figures relate only to municipal waste, which accounts for only a fraction of the total waste generated (in Poland in 2024 it was 12 per cent.[i]).

In the period from 2022 to 2050. the highest 128% increase in municipal waste mass is expected to occur in low-income countries. Lower middle-income countries will almost double the amount of waste generated (97 per cent increase). The lowest increases will be seen in high-income (18 per cent) and higher middle-income countries (38 per cent). None of the scenarios, even the most optimistic, assumes a reduction in the mass of municipal waste.

The ever-increasing mass of waste is not just due to the continued growth of the global population. It is primarily the result of changing lifestyles - greater consumption, urbanisation and rising incomes. The richer a society is, the more waste it produces.

Municipal waste as a measure of social inequality

Figures for municipal waste generation and management vary according to region, country and wealth of the population.

• Highly developed countries (16 per cent of the global population) account for 29 per cent of waste generated and achieve the highest waste generation rates per capita.
• The East Asia and Pacific region accounts for the largest share of global municipal waste mass (33 per cent) and the Middle East and North Africa the smallest (6 per cent).
• Countries in Europe and Central Asia achieve the highest collection rates (96 per cent on average and even 100 per cent in some countries), while in the sub-Saharan African region, as much as 69 per cent of waste is not collected at all and 24 per cent ends up in wild landfills.
• In low-income countries, bio-waste (i.e. food and green waste) makes up the majority of the municipal waste stream (52 per cent). In contrast, in higher-income countries, recyclables, textiles and waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) dominate, making up about 50 per cent of the municipal waste mass.
• In highly developed countries, almost 100 per cent of municipal waste is treated in professional facilities. In low-income countries, only 3 per cent of rubbish goes to such installations.

What about the remaining waste? Surveys and desk studies conducted in 49 countries show that the most common methods of managing unclaimed waste in low- and middle-income countries are self-incineration and environmental dumping. Residents of affluent countries mostly report open burning and recycling or composting. Other methods used by the surveyed population included burying waste and abandoning it in watercourses.

Read also: New EU food waste reduction target >>

Plastic waste one of the biggest challenges of the global waste system

The World Bank report devotes considerable attention to plastic waste, which accounts for about 12.5 per cent of the mass of global municipal waste (ranging from 8.1 per cent in low-income countries to 13.1 per cent in middle-income countries), equivalent to about 324 million tonnes. As much as 65 per cent of this mass is single-use products.

The problem of plastic pollution is currently one of the biggest environmental challenges. To date, 88 countries around the world have implemented specific policies aimed at reducing plastic consumption and proper management of the waste generated from them. Depending on the country and region, these take the form of additional fees, taxes and bans imposed on the most common plastic products. One of the most complex policies is the Extended Producer Responsibility system, which is currently implemented mainly in high-income countries.

Despite global efforts, still more than 29 per cent of plastic waste (93 million tonnes) is not adequately treated and managed, 13 per cent are recycled incorrectly or dumped in wild landfills and 16 per cent do not enter the collection system at all. The largest generators of untreated plastic waste are: Sub-Saharan Africa (15 million tonnes), South Asia (14 million tonnes) and East Asia and the Pacific (12 million tonnes).

From the perspective of a circular economy, this is not only a huge environmental problem, but also a loss of valuable, non-renewable raw materials that (under other market conditions) could go back into circulation.

Read also: Fiasco of global plastic pollution treaty negotiations >>

Too high, yet still too low costs of global waste management

As calculated by the authors of the report, the cost of global municipal waste management already exceeds the USD 250 billion per year, and in the scenario business-as-usual by 2050. may even rise to the level of 426 billion dollars. Like other waste management issues, the unit cost of waste management also varies considerably in different regions of the world. Processing a tonne of municipal waste in low-income countries with simple waste management systems can cost around $40-45 per tonne, and up to over $120 per tonne in highly developed countries using advanced, automated recycling systems. This is a heavy burden on local governments, which spend on average about 6 per cent of their budgets, and even more in poorer regions.

Read also: Municipalities will pay for insufficient recycling. Waste collection fees could rise by several tens of percent

Despite significant financial resources, many cities and municipalities struggle to finance waste management. Only in high-income countries are the fees paid by residents and producers (if the country has a ROP system) sufficient to cover all the necessary costs. In other countries it is necessary to subsidise the waste system from the state budget, which often turns out to be impossible. The scarcity of resources leads to chronic underinvestment and growing problems in the waste management system.

About the report What a Waste

Report What a Waste 3.0: Global Snapshot of Solid Waste Management toward Circularity until 2050 This is the third (after the 2012 and 2018 publications) edition of the report series What a Waste developed by World Bank experts. The report was authored by Ed Cook, Kremena Ionkova, Perinaz Bhada-Tata, Sonakshi Yadav and Frank van Woerden, who collected and analysed publicly available data from 217 countries and economies and 262 cities.

What a Waste 3.0 consolidates data on municipal waste generation, morphology, collection, treatment and disposal, and presents trends by geographical region and income group. It updates and extends previous studies to provide a global reference set of information on municipal waste management in the context of the GOZ transition.

[i] CSO, Environmental protection 2025, https://stat.gov.pl/obszary-tematyczne/srodowisko-energia/srodowisko/ochrona-srodowiska-2025,1,26.html