A crisis in the PCR market is looming. Latest report reveals how much recyclate will be in short supply by 2030

The shortage of post-consumer plastic recyclate is no longer a forecast, but is becoming a real threat to the European packaging market. The latest Interzero report shows that by 2030, the gap between demand and supply of PCR will exceed 1 million tonnes - even if EU recycling targets are fully met. The effects of this shortfall are already being felt by producers today: recyclate prices are rising, delivery times are lengthening and access to high-quality PCR is becoming increasingly limited.

It's a foregone conclusion - the PCR deficit will exceed 1m tonnes by 2030

In the coming months and years a serious supply crisis is to be expected in the post-consumer plastic recyclate (PCR) market. Already The packaging industry is facing difficulties in access to quality PCR and with rising prices for recyclate, especially for food contact. And it will only get worse - in the most optimistic scenario, the PCR supply gap is expected to reach 1 million tonnes by 2030.

This is the future of the recycling and packaging industries, according to the latest Interzero report CIRCULAR PACKAGING 2030: Strategies for action in an era of shortage of recyclate. It presents the findings of a study on PCR availability to 2030 conducted by BP Consultants on behalf of Interzero. In it, the authors refer to the results of other industry studies and cite statements by representatives of the waste sector, which make it clear that the current supply of recyclate is limited and insufficient. As the experts state, obtaining high-quality PCR is now twice as expensive and twice as time-consuming than in the quite recent past.

Deepening raw materials crisis markets will be hardest hit:

• polypropylene, especially for food contact, which is widely used in the cosmetics and food industries,
• LDPE and composites, for which we do not have sufficient capacity,
• all polymers intended to come into contact with sensitive products.

The report also provides other worrying conclusions - the situation in the PCR market is not going to improve in the near future; it may even get worse. In any future PCR demand scenario, a sizeable gap between supply and demand emerges, which will not be bridged even by the full implementation of the EU plastics recycling targets or the widespread use of methods chemical recycling. Indeed, the crisis is caused by systemic barriers and constraints that exist throughout the value chain plastics.

Cost increases, delays and PCR supply disruptions the biggest threats to packaging manufacturers

The dire situation of the European plastics recycling industry and the bottlenecks in plastics value chains mean that packaging manufacturers may be facing entirely new challenges. Increasingly limited availability of raw material will result in higher prices and thus higher operating costs, that may surprise entrepreneurs.

Constant fluctuations in PCR prices and availability will also be a disincentive for suppliers to sign long-term contracts that include guarantees to maintain a stable price level and ensure uninterrupted supply. Contractual risk on the part of suppliers will increase as the crisis in the PCR market deepens, therefore The turn of the year 2025/2026 may be the last moment to negotiate and conclude a favourable agreement for packaging producers. In this case, time is playing against the representatives of the packaging industry, forcing them to act according to the first-come, first-served principle. The lack of long-term contracts for the supply of post-consumer plastic recyclates poses a real risk of a shortage of raw material, which for many operators will mean that production will have to be halted and may cast a shadow over cooperation with customers.

There is little and there will be even less - PPWR will intensify competition in the race for recyclate

The entire packaging industry is already feeling the breath of the PPWR regulation and the obligation it imposes to use recyclates for packaging. Let us recall that from 2030, the minimum PCR content will be:

• 30% for PET bottles,
• 35% for packaging not intended for food contact,

The sanction for failing to meet these levels will be that packaging cannot be put on the market. Producers of packaging and other plastic products will therefore be forced to compete for access to recyclate, and the stakes in this race will be to be or not to be for their products.

Reasons for the post-consumer recyclate supply gap

Prepared on behalf of Interzero, the study report identifies 6 key reasons for the market shortage of recyclate located at different stages of the plastics value chain.

• No eco-design of packaging

Inadequate packaging design makes it difficult, if not impossible, to recycle and achieve high-quality PCR.

• Poor sorting quality

Despite the mandatory separate collection of plastic waste, the quality of this collection in the EU is still insufficient. While some packaging is incorrectly sorted, other packaging cannot be clearly attributed to any of the streams due to, for example, a lack of eco-design.

• Limited capacity of recycling facilities

At a time when globally PCR production volumes are increasing year on year, we are seeing stagnation in Europe's backyard, rooted in the 2022 [i]. The European plastics recycling industry as a whole has long been struggling with the recession, which has resulted, among other things, in production stoppages at more facilities. Meanwhile, the size of the projected PCR supply gap corresponds to the volumes produced by ten large recycling plants. In the current situation, however, their emergence is highly doubtful.

• Price competition with primary materials

Virgin plastics, especially imported plastics, are sometimes cheaper than PCR. The minimum levels of recyclate use set by the PPWR will force producers to use PCR, but will not eliminate the price differential between imported and EU-produced PCR.

• Cross-sector competition

It is not only packaging companies that compete for access to recyclate, but also the entire automotive sector, electronics manufacturers and building materials producers. Thus, the amount of raw material „accruing” to packaging manufacturers is steadily decreasing.

Read also: ROP for vehicles will make the use of recyclates mandatory in new cars

• Stringent quality standards for raw material for contact with sensitive products

Improper selective collection and contamination of post-consumer waste make it difficult to obtain high-quality PCR.

How to act in an era of recyclate shortage? Strategies for packaging companies

Analysing the above data, experts from Interzero and BP Consultants have created a Roadmap 2030 - a set of steps that every company using PCR should take, to guard against the effects of the plastics crisis. Roadmap is an integral part of the report CIRCULAR PACKAGING 2030: Strategies for action in an era of shortage of recyclate, which additionally presents complete data, forecasts and recommendations that can underpin the organisation's strategy for the coming years.

Want to understand how the PCR shortfall will affect your company's operations and see what you should change in your organisation later this year? Download the report CIRCULAR PACKAGING 2030: Strategies for action in an era of shortage of recyclate and protect your business from the effects of the PCR crisis.

[i] Plastics the Fast Facts 2025. Global and European plastics production and economic indicators, https://plasticseurope.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/PE_TheFacts_25_digital-1pager-scrollable.pdf