Global warming accelerates - Earth's average temperature will rise by 1.5 degrees C in three years' time
At current levels of greenhouse gas emissions, the Earth's average temperature could rise to 1.5 degrees C over the pre-industrial era within three years, and to 1.6 or 1.7 degrees C in the next nine years. Compiled by 60 leading climate scientists, the report shows that the world is still not doing enough to meet its commitments under the Paris Agreement.
CO2 emissions up, carbon budget down
An annual update of key climate system indicators has revealed that in just three years the Earth's average temperature could rise by 1.5 degrees C compared to the pre-industrial era. As scientists point out, the main reason for this is the ever-increasing emissions of CO2, methane and other greenhouse gases.
In 2020, scientists calculated that humanity could emit a maximum of 500 billion more tonnes of CO2 to maintain at least a 50% chance of stopping global warming below 1.5 degrees C. The then defined "carbon budget" in 2025. has shrunk to just 130 billion tonnes of CO2. In developing the latest findings, the researchers used an improved method of calculating key indicators, which further revealed the scale of the problem. With global emissions of around 40 billion tonnes of CO2, So we have about 3 years left until this "budget" is exhausted and to exceed the symbolic threshold of 1.5 degrees C.
According to one of the report's lead authors, Professor Piers Forster, Director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds, "Everything is going in the wrong direction". Every year, scientists note an increase in emissions from fossil fuel combustion, industrial activities, land cultivation and deforestation.
"We are seeing some unprecedented changes, and we are seeing that the warming of the Earth and the rise in sea levels are also accelerating. [...] These changes have been predicted for some time and we can directly transfer them to very high levels of emissions", Forster added.
At the same time, the report's authors emphasise that rapid and decisive emissions reductions (such as those pledged at COP28 at the end of 2023) could slow the rate of increase in global average temperatures by up to half over the next 20 years.
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The Paris Agreement is not working - the Earth's average temperature has exceeded its target level
Across the globe, attempts have been made for years to reduce emissions and associated global warming. In 2015, under the Paris Agreement 195 countries of the world have committed to develop long-term action plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in such a way as to limit global warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius, with a target of 1.5 degrees Celsius relative to the pre-industrial era. Less than 10 years later, in 2024, global average temperatures were recorded for the first time to exceed the assumed 1.5 degree increase relative to the late 19th century.However, scientists emphasise that one year of overruns does not yet mean a breach of the Paris Agreement. They point out, however, that human activity was the main cause of the high temperatures last year.
"Temperatures have been rising year on year since the last IPCC report in 2021, showing that climate policy and the pace of climate action have not kept pace with what is needed to curb the ever-increasing impacts of the" - Professor Foster pointed out - ".Continued record high greenhouse gas emissions mean that more and more of us are experiencing dangerous levels of climate change impacts."
The climate is currently warming at a rate of around 0.27 degrees C per decade. Between 2015 and 2024, the rate of warming was more than double that of the 1970s and 1980s and an estimated 25% higher than in the late 2000s and 2010. Without significant emission reductions, around 2030, we will exceed the Paris Agreement ceiling of 1.5 degrees C. The next threshold, 1.6 or 1.7 degrees C, on the other hand, could be exceeded in the next nine years.
Read also: Net zero at risk - will the EU achieve climate neutrality by 2050?
Combating the effects of climate change drains the Polish budget
The effects of global warming are already taking their toll on the Polish taxpayer. The IOŚ-PIB has estimated that due to extreme weather events, every year Poland loses around 6 billion PLN. Cumulative losses for the period 2001-2019 amounted to as much as PLN 119 billion. Particularly severe for Poland are prolonged droughts, the frequency of which in 2010-2019 increased by as much as double compared to previous decades. This is followed by river floods, storms and intense rainfall, heat waves and tornadoes.
From 2050 onwards, climate change could cost Poland up to PLN 124 billion a year, equivalent to 2.2% GDP. This will happen if Europe and the world slow down the green transition towards low-carbon economies. With consistent implementation of the climate targets set there is an opportunity to reduce annual expenditure to 1.5% GDP, or 84 billion PLN. Current public spending on climate and air protection, on the other hand, amounts to... 0.2% GDP. As the report's authors report, this is more than 2 times less than fossil fuel subsidies and more than 3 times less than budget revenues from the sale of emission allowances.
"We are already suffering the real losses of progressive climate change, although in the public debate we often still treat it as a topic of the future" - says Alexander Sniegocki, co-author of the report The costs of climate change in Poland. Why does Poland need an active climate policy?, president of the Reform Institute and head of economic analysis. "Without investment in resilience and adaptation, Poland will not only be poorer, but also less safe and increasingly helpless against the effects of avoidable phenomena.".
International Court of Justice will examine states' climate protection obligations
From the above paragraphs and the scientific statements quoted, one can conclude that countries are still not making adequate efforts to combat climate change. Steadily rising emissions and global temperatures, as well as insufficient investment in pro-climate measures, clearly suggest that the current and future state of the environment is not a priority for those in power. However, this may soon change - The International Court of Justice is currently working on an advisory opinion that will set out the climate protection responsibilities of states and the consequences of not fulfilling these obligations.
The ICJ began proceedings in March 2023 at the request of the UN General Assembly. The issue of clarifying the obligations of states was raised by Vanuatu, which could be very affected by changes related to global warming. While the ICJ's opinion will not be binding on UN states, the can significantly influence the future direction of their climate policies. If the ICJ decides that tackling global warming and reducing emissions are the legal obligations of states, the will provide activists, NGOs and lawyers with strong arguments in legal processes against countries, companies and lobbyists, among others. Such an opinion can be a turning point in global climate policy, setting new legal standards and becoming one of the bases for judgments by national courts. Indeed, ICJ opinions are interpretations of international law, including human rights, which are inviolable and inalienable.
The Court is currently accepting positions submitted by States, the UN and NGOs. Due to the vast amount of material to be analysed, An opinion is not expected until the end of 2025 at the earliest.
Sources:
- M. Foster et al, Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/17/2641/2025/
- Poynting, Three years left to limit warming to 1.5C, leading scientists warn, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn4l927dj5zo
- Scientists find three years left of remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C, https://climate.leeds.ac.uk/news/scientists-find-three-years-left-of-remaining-carbon-budget-for-1-5c/
- New report: Poland is paying billions for the effects of climate change - and will pay more and more, https://www.clientearth.pl/najnowsze-dzialania/artykuly/nowy-raport-polska-placi-miliardy-za-skutki-zmiany-klimatu-i-bedzie-placic-coraz-wiecej/
- Stefańczyk, A. Śniegocki, M. Wojtyło, Climate change costs in Poland. Why Poland needs an active climate policy, https://www.clientearth.pl/media/hljdm1s3/koszty-zmiany-klimatu-w-polsce.pdf.
- Can the UN force countries to do more to tackle climate change?, https://www.f5.pl/zmiany-klimatu/czy-onz-moze-zmusic-kraje-do-wiekszych-wysilkow-na-rzecz-przeciwdzialania-zmianom-klimatu