In just a few months, a deposit system will start operating in Poland. In view of the impending revolution in the packaging market, Delloite contacted all stakeholders and estimated the costs of implementing and operating the system in our country.

In the 2024 published in September. Report Bail system in Poland - costs, prospects, opportunities Delloite experts have calculated the cost of implementation of the bail-in system for more than PLN 37 billion over the first 10 years functioning.

• By 2034. the investment cost alone will amount to PLN 14.2 billion. More than 60% of this amount will be spent on building work to make the shops suitable for collection. Another item in the cost structure is the purchase of bottle machines, which will consume more than 20% of the amount indicated.

The authors of the report assumed that the collection of all types of packaging covered by the Polish deposit system would be carried out in a mixed way, both manually (using bag systems) and automatically, using verification and destruction machines for the deposit system (e.g. Sielaff bottle machines). Estimated the cost of implementing automatic collection will amount to PLN 12.5 billion and manual collection to PLN 0.9 billion.

• The 10-year cost of the Polish bail system will turn out to be even higher, which may amount to PLN 24.3 billion in the optimistic scenario and PLN 21.7 billion in the pessimistic one. For the time being, experts assume that the intermediate, realistic scenario will come true, and the The operating cost of the bail-in system between 2025 and 2034 will close at PLN 23.1 billion.

From 2025 onwards, the annual cost of operating the bail system will gradually increase. In the most likely scenario in the first year of the system's operation it will be 0.9 billion, and after 10 years it will be 2.9 billion. According to Delloite specialists' estimates, by 2034 total operating costs will reach £23.1bn, of which:

• 38,91% will be earmarked for automatic collection in shops,
• 26.5% will cover the cost of manual collection at logistics and counting centres,
• 20,24% will go to a manual collection run in shops,
• 14,17% will be allocated for automatic collection at counting and logistics centres.

Estimated in the report the operating costs of the deposit scheme may in fact change and quite significantly. The final amount will depend, among other things, on the level of collection, the amount of unclaimed deposit for packaging and the rate at which the employees operating the bottle and bag systems and those working in the logistics centres are introduced to their new responsibilities. Importantly, the macroeconomic assumptions of the presented forecast may also change. For the purposes of the report, it has been assumed that the consumer price index (CPI) will decline from 11.4% in 2023 to 2.9% in 2027, with fluctuations of no more than 0.2 pp in subsequent years. Nominal wage growth will also decelerate, as assumed, from 11.9% in 2023 to 5.4% in 2027-2034.

The referenced Delloite report also presents the investment costs of implementing a deposit system, broken down by the types of packaging covered. As it turns out, more than half of the expenditure (7.5 billion over 10 years) will be related to the collection of plastic bottles. Much less, 3.6 billion, will be invested in the collection of metal cans. Reusable glass bottles will not be included in the deposit system until 2026, one year later than other types of packaging. Investment outlays for their collection are the lowest - according to Delloite estimates, they will total PLN 3.1 billion by 2034.

To read more about the costs, opportunities and prospects of the bail system, read in the latest Delloite report.